Sunzi’s Warning on Protracted War: Why America’s Campaign in Iran Is a Strategic Disaster

At the time of publishing this article in late June 2026, the US-Israel military campaign against Iran has stretched into its fourth month. What Washington hoped would be a swift decapitation strike has evolved into a grinding conflict — exactly the kind of prolonged war that Sunzi warned against thousands of years ago.

In The Art of War, Sunzi wrote:

久则钝兵挫锐，攻城则力屈，久暴师则国用不足。夫钝兵挫锐，屈力殚货，则诸侯乘其弊而起，虽有智者不能善其后矣。

Pinyin:

Jiǔ zé dùn bīng cuò ruì, gōng chéng zé lì jué, jiǔ pù shī zé guó yòng bù zú. Fú dùn bīng cuò ruì, jué lì dān huò, zé zhū hóu chéng qí bì ér qǐ, suī yǒu zhì zhě bù néng shàn qí hòu yǐ.

English translation:

“If the campaign is protracted, the soldiers’s weapons will grow dull and their morale will sag. If you lay siege to a walled city, your strength will be exhausted. If the army is kept in the field for a long time, the resources of the state will be insufficient. When your weapons are dulled and your morale is dampened, when your strength is exhausted and your wealth is spent, then other neighbouring rulers will take advantage of your distress to rise up. Even if you have wise counsellors, they will not be able to fix the consequences that follow.”

This ancient insight is unfolding in real time. The longer the conflict drags on, the more America’s relative power erodes.

1. 久则钝兵挫锐 “Protracted campaigns dull weapons and erode morale”
The US has already suffered significant material losses: multiple advanced aircraft (including F-15 Strike Eagles and at least one F-35), dozens of MQ-9 Reaper drones, and damage to regional bases, radar systems, and infrastructure. Maintenance issues, such as the widely reported “toilet crisis” and onboard fires aboard the USS Gerald R. Ford earlier in 2026, signal deeper strain on readiness and crew morale.

2. 攻城则力屈 “Laying siege exhausts your strength”
Although the US has avoided full territorial occupation, the large-scale April 2026 operation to rescue a downed F-15E pilot — involving 155 aircraft — illustrated the enormous cost of even limited deep strikes. Iran portrayed the mission as a cover for seizing enriched uranium. Regardless of the narrative, the operation resulted in heavy losses, including the deliberate destruction of several US transport planes and special operations helicopters. High-intensity missions in hostile airspace quickly consume resources and expose vulnerabilities.

3. 久暴师则国用不足 “Prolonged field operations drain state resources”
The economic spillover is hitting American households. National average gas prices surged over 40% very quickly. Fertiliser prices, particularly nitrogen-based urea, have spiked sharply, while supply disruptions in helium and other materials have driven broader inflation. In response, the Trump administration has requested $1.5 trillion in defence spending for 2027 — a 40-50% increase — while proposing significant cuts to non-defence programs, including energy assistance, housing, transportation, Medicare, and Medicaid. The Pentagon estimates direct war costs at $25 billion, with the true figure likely higher.

4. 诸侯乘其弊而起 “Neighbouring powers will exploit your weakness”
America’s traditional alliances are fraying. European NATO members have offered little support, with Spain and Italy actively denying airspace and base access. In the Gulf, Saudi Arabia blocked US operations, derailing parts of Project Freedom, while the UAE withdrew from OPEC — a foundational element of the petrodollar system. Qatar has maintained dialogue with Iran. Meanwhile, China has positioned itself as a stable alternative: demand for its renewable energy products and EVs has grown amid fuel shortages, and the RMB has gained traction as a safer asset in uncertain times.

China does not necessarily need to become a new hegemon. It only needs the old order to falter — and prolonged conflict is accelerating that erosion.

Sunzi was clear: no matter how powerful a state may be, a long war without decisive victory invites decline. The US experience in Iran validates this ancient principle. What began as an attempt to reshape the Middle East and gain leverage over China has instead exposed military, economic, and diplomatic vulnerabilities.

Protracted conflicts are not limited to battlefields. They appear in everyday life as draining situations that slowly erode your resources, energy, and opportunities:

• Credit card debt spirals: Borrowing from new cards to pay old ones while interest compounds.
• Toxic relationships: Endless arguments that exhaust emotional energy without resolution.
• Dead-end jobs: Constant overtime just to maintain the status quo, with no growth or fulfilment.
• Unhealthy habits: Lingering patterns (poor diet, procrastination, toxic environments) that gradually dull your vitality.

Audit your commitments using Sunzi’s lens. Ask yourself: Is my “campaign” dulling my edge and draining my resources? Am I exhausting my strength for diminishing returns? Are other opportunities or rivals gaining ground while I remain stuck?

If the answer is yes, the wisest move is often the hardest: cut losses, withdraw strategically, and redirect your energy toward battles you can actually win.

If you like this article, you’ll enjoy the full e-course, Sunzi and the 2026 US-Iran War: Ancient Strategy for Modern Conflict. It distilled Sunzi’s teaching into three lessons, dissecting one of the most significant geopolitical events in modern times. Discover powerful lessons on decision-making, avoiding costly stalemates, and building true security — principles you can apply to business, career, and life. 

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