“无恃其不来，恃吾有以待也。” explained!
The ancient Chinese military strategist Sunzi taught that real security does not depend on hoping your adversary stays away, but on building unassailable preparedness.
While the US-Israel campaign against Iran appeared to be a regional conflict, many analysts viewed it through a broader geopolitical lens: America’s surprise actions in both Venezuela and Iran were, in large part, designed to contain China by controlling critical energy supplies. The logic is compelling.
Iran holds roughly 13% of global oil reserves, Venezuela about 19.4%, and Iraq around 9%. With the US already influencing Iraqi output and having seized effective control of Venezuela’s reserves following the January 3, 2026, operation, Washington stood to command over 33% of global supply. Success in Iran would have pushed that figure close to 46% — nearly half the world’s oil — right before a pivotal Trump-Xi summit scheduled for late March 2026. This would have given the US enormous leverage over China, the world’s largest oil importer and a nation reliant on Iranian and Venezuelan supplies.
That plan faltered. Iran did not collapse after the initial decapitation strike. The summit was postponed to mid-May, and while an oil shock did occur, its impact played out very differently than Washington anticipated.
The Energy Shock and China’s Resilience
When Iran retaliated by closing the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint carrying about 20% of global oil and gas flows — oil prices surged, triggering flight cancellations, fuel rationing, and fertiliser shortages worldwide. Many economies struggled. China, however, demonstrated remarkable stability: it sharply reduced imports, exported oil and jet fuel to neighbours including Australia, Cambodia, and Laos, and maintained sufficient domestic fertiliser supplies.
This resilience was no accident. It was the direct result of decades of deliberate preparation — precisely what Sunzi advocated:
故用兵之法，无恃其不来，恃吾有以待也；无恃其不攻，恃吾有所不可攻也。
Pinyin:
Gù yòng bīng zhī fǎ, wú shì qí bù lái, shì wú yǒu yǐ dài yě; wú shì qí bù gōng, shì wú yǒu suǒ bù kě gōng yě.
English translation:
“Therefore, the art of war teaches us to rely not on the likelihood of the enemy’s not coming, but on our own readiness to receive him; not on the chance of his not attacking, but rather on the fact that we have made our position unassailable.”
China’s Three Pillars of Readiness
Energy
China entered 2026 with strategic petroleum reserves capable of covering more than three months of total imports. It diversified energy sources, dramatically increasing Russian oil imports, while investing heavily in domestic renewables, solar, wind, and nuclear capacity. Its aggressive push into electric vehicles (EVs) and high-speed rail further reduced oil dependence in its domestic economy.
Finance
Oil and finance are highly connected through petrodollar. Energy security supports financial security. Through CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) and the mBridge multi-currency platform, China built alternatives to SWIFT and the dollar-dominated system. As a result, the oil shock and surging oil price weakened the euro and yen instantly but not the yuan, enhancing China’s relative financial stability.
Food Security
Oil shocks ripple into agriculture via fertiliser prices. China had prepared by mastering urea production from abundant coal reserves, ensuring domestic spring planting needs were met and even allowing for exports of surplus.
By building strength across energy, finance, and food systems, China turned a potential crisis into a strategic opportunity.
The Core Lesson from Sunzi
True security is not rooted in optimism or wishful thinking. It stems from long-term, systematic preparation. China did not merely hope the US would refrain from disruptive actions — it made itself far less vulnerable to them.
Applying This Wisdom to Your Life and Career
Sunzi’s principle applies beyond geopolitics. In an uncertain world, you cannot simply hope bad things won’t happen. You must build readiness.
For example, at the age of AI, don’t just hope your job remains safe. Build an emergency fund covering 6–12 months, develop in-demand skills, and cultivate a side income or freelance portfolio.
Ask yourself, “What could realistically go wrong in the next 3–5 years?” Then build defences against those scenarios. Preparation beats prediction.
The US-Iran conflict underscores Sunzi’s enduring truth: those who prepare for adversity rarely panic when it arrives. In both nations and individual lives, genuine security is earned through foresight and disciplined effort — not assumed through hope.
Dive Deeper
If you like this article, you’ll enjoy the full e-course, Sunzi and the 2026 US-Iran War: Ancient Strategy for Modern Conflict. It distilled Sunzi’s teaching into three lessons, dissecting one of the most significant geopolitical events in modern times. Discover powerful lessons on decision-making, avoiding costly stalemates, and building true security — principles you can apply to business, career, and life.
Get it Here: MSL Master e-courses